Box Office: Sam Raimi’s ‘Send Help’ Targets $15 Million Debut, ‘Melania’ Doc Aims for $3 Million Against $40 Million Price Tag

It’s intriguing final weekend at the January box office — if only one, or two or three of these wide releases can overperform after last weekend’s monster storm shut the lights at 400 theaters.

via: Variety

It’s not that the nation’s movie theaters are floundering, but they could use a jolt after a recent winter storm contributed to the lowest collective weekend of the (nascent) year. Disney and 20th Century’s “Send Help” might be a late-January box office buoy, with the R-rated film aiming for No. 1 with $14 million to $17 million from 3,475 cinemas. With great word-of-mouth and enthusiasm for original horror, industry watchers believe “Send Help” could exceed expectations and then stick around beyond its debut. At the international box office, the movie is projected to bring in $10 million to $12 million.

“Send Help” cost $40 million to produce. Raimi, best known for the Tobey Maguire-led “Spider-Man” trilogy, returned to his horror roots with “Send Help,” having created the “Evil Dead” franchise and helming “Darkman” and “Drag Me to Hell.” Rachel McAdams and Dylan O’Brien star in “Send Help” as a looked-over employee and her toxic boss, who get stranded after a plane crash. In Variety’s review, chief film critic Peter Debruge wrote that “what’s so much fun about ‘Send Help’ is how unpredictable it manages to be for most of their time on the island.”

“Send Help” won’t have trouble leading the box office over a trio of newcomers, the sci-fi thriller “Iron Lung,” Jason Statham’s action-adventure “Shelter” and First Lady-centric documentary “Melania.” Based on projections, “Iron Lung” could secure second place with $10 million. Meanwhile “Shelter” is projecting a $5 million to $7 million bow, and “Melania” is hoping to earn $3 million to $5 million.

In the case of “Melania,” a seven-figure start is noteworthy for a documentary (especially one that isn’t about a concert) but terrible for a film that cost $40 million to acquire. That’s how much Amazon MGM, which is releasing “Melania” in 1,500 domestic theaters, spent for the rights before reportedly shelling out another $35 million on marketing expenses — a staggering sum for a documentary. This film has outsized interest, of course, because it’s about First Lady Melania Trump in the 20 days before Donald Trump’s second presidential inauguration. It’s opening in theaters against a backdrop of political unrest, with ICE raids in Minneapolis and other parts of the country prompting a bipartisan backlash.

Brett Ratner, whose credits include “Rush Hour” and “X-Men: The Last Stand,” directed “Melania” in the first project since his career was derailed in 2017 by sexual assault allegations. Amazon MGM is hosting the world premiere on Thursday night in D.C. at the newly renamed Trump-Kennedy Center. Melania and Donald Trump, the president’s supporters like Dr. Mehmet Oz and Dr. Phil, as well as government officials such as Pete Hegseth and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., are expected to attend. Beyond the mega marketing budget, Trump has taken promotional efforts into his own hands, calling “Melania” a “must watch” on social media platforms.

“Iron Lung” is another notable release, because it hails from YouTuber Markiplier. The creator, whose real name is Mark Fischback, wrote, directed, financed and stars in “Iron Lung,” based on the 2022 video game. Markiplier, who boasts 73 million followers across digital platforms, including 38 million subscribers on Youtube, is also self-distributing the film. Set in the post-apocalyptic future, the story centers on a convict who is sent to explore a moon planet with a “blood ocean” in search of natural resources.

“Shelter” is tracking a soft start against its $50 million production budget. The R-rated film was directed by Ric Roman Waugh, the filmmaker behind a slew of Gerard Butler-led action thrillers like “Greenland” and “Angel Has Fallen.” It follows a reclusive man who unwittingly sets off a violent chain reaction after he rescues a young girl from drowning in a terrible storm. “Shelter” is being released by newer distributor Black Bear, which plans to unveil the Matthew McConaughey-led “The Rivals of Amziah King,” ensemble comedy “Spa Weekend” and Guy Ritchie’s “Wife and Dog” over the next few months.

Whether they’re able to pack in crowds remains a question, but exhibitors are thrilled about the prospect of new companies like Black Bear, Row K and Warner Bros. Independent entering the theatrical space. That’s because traditional studios have decreased their output in the wake of the pandemic and two Hollywood labor strikes. With fewer new films, domestic revenues have yet to return to pre-COVID levels while last year’s tally fell short of the projected $9 billion mark. Will 2026 finally bring the long-awaited box office rebound?